Is Natural Earth's "De Facto" Policy Actually a Policy?
Natural Earth — the geodatabase behind most AI-generated maps — defends assigning Crimea to Russia as neutral application of a "de facto control" rule. We audited every comparable territory in Natural Earth's own data (master branch, frozen since June 2022; checked 2026-08-05).
Of the 8 Russia-linked occupied territories in Natural Earth's data, the "de facto control" rule is applied to exactly one — the only one whose reassignment benefits Russia's sovereignty claim: Crimea.
The default Natural Earth map, disputed territories highlighted
Default file (what every downstream library ships): Crimea → Russia, clean "Sovereign country".
Base map: Natural Earth default admin-0 (via world-atlas 110m). Overlays: NE's own
ne_50m_admin_0_breakaway_disputed_areas — the opt-in layer that downstream libraries do not ship.
Hover any highlighted territory for its treatment.
The Russia test
Every Russia-linked occupied territory, one region. Blue = NE kept the de jure state. Red = NE handed sovereignty to Russia. There is exactly one red territory.
Seven territories, one aggressor, one rule — applied once. Donetsk and Luhansk were seized the same year as Crimea (2014). Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria have been under Russian military control for decades. Mariupol, Melitopol and Kherson (gold dots) were under full Russian control when Natural Earth last edited its data in June 2022.
None of them were reassigned. Only Crimea — the one territory Russia had formally declared annexed — was merged into Russia's polygon, with no dispute marker.
One rule, five treatments
| Territory | De facto (at NE freeze, June 2022) | De jure | Natural Earth default puts it in | "De facto" rule followed? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crimea | Russia (occupied & annexed 2014) | Ukraine (UNGA 68/262) | Russia — "Sovereign country" | Yes — the only Russia-linked territory where it is |
| Donetsk (DNR) | DNR/Russia since 2014 — same year as Crimea | Ukraine | Ukraine | No |
| Luhansk (LNR) | LNR/Russia since 2014 — same year as Crimea | Ukraine | Ukraine | No |
| South Ukraine (Mariupol, Melitopol, Kherson) | Russia (Feb–May 2022, before NE's June 2022 data freeze) | Ukraine | Ukraine | No |
| Abkhazia | Self-declared, Russian garrison since 2008 | Georgia | Georgia | No |
| South Ossetia | Self-declared, Russian garrison since 2008 | Georgia | Georgia | No |
| Transnistria | Self-declared since 1992, Russian troops present | Moldova | Moldova | No |
| Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) | Armenian-held at NE's June 2022 freeze | Azerbaijan | Azerbaijan | No (at authoring time) |
| Northern Cyprus | TRNC since Turkish invasion 1974 | Cyprus | Own unit "Northern Cyprus" | Partially — de facto recognized without rewarding Turkey |
| Somaliland | Self-governing since 1991 | Somalia | Own unit "Somaliland" | Partially — own unit |
| Taiwan | ROC since 1949 | Contested | Own unit "Taiwan" | Partially — own unit |
| Kosovo | Independent since 2008 (partially recognized) | Contested | Own unit "Kosovo" — TYPE=Disputed | Partially — own unit with dispute marker |
| Golan Heights | Israel (occupied 1967, annexed 1981) | Syria | Israel — but Israel's entire polygon is TYPE="Disputed" | Yes — with a country-level dispute marker |
| Kuril Islands | Russia since 1945 | Claimed by Japan | Russia — "Sovereign country" | Yes |
| Western Sahara | Split: Morocco (west) / SADR (east) since 1975 | Non-self-governing territory (UN) | Split: Moroccan zone → Morocco; SADR zone → own unit, TYPE=Indeterminate | Yes — split along berm |
| Kashmir (Jammu & Kashmir / Gilgit-Baltistan / Aksai Chin) | Split: India / Pakistan / China since 1947–62 | Disputed | Split along lines of control; extensive disputed-layer coverage | Yes — split with dispute markers |
| West Bank & Gaza | Israeli occupation / PA / Hamas | Palestine (UN observer state) | ADMIN=Palestine, SOVEREIGNT=Israel, TYPE=Indeterminate | Mixed — separate ADMIN unit, occupier sovereignty |
Same year, same war, opposite treatment
Crimea and the Donetsk/Luhansk "republics" were all seized in 2014. Crimea was merged into Russia's polygon; DNR/LNR stayed Ukrainian. Mariupol, Melitopol and Kherson were under full Russian control when NE last touched its data — their polygons never changed.
The Northern Cyprus precedent
Armed invasion (1974) → self-declared entity → NE gives it a separate unit while Turkey's polygon stays unchanged. NE had this template for 40+ years and chose not to apply it to Crimea.
Even the closest parallel is marked
The Golan Heights are assigned to Israel — but Israel's entire polygon carries
TYPE="Disputed". Russia's polygon, Crimea inside, is a clean
"Sovereign country".
NE's own files disagree with NE
Natural Earth ships worldview variants: the USA-POV and Ukraine-POV files put Crimea in Ukraine; the ISO-POV file leaves it unassigned. Only the default — the file that propagates to every charting library and every AI training corpus — awards Crimea to Russia.
Why this matters now
The pattern that actually fits the data: sovereignty flips when the occupier formally declares
annexation (Crimea 2014, Golan 1981). Natural Earth froze its data in June 2022. Russia declared
the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts on 30 September 2022. If Natural
Earth resumes updates under its revealed rule, four more Ukrainian oblasts flip to
SOVEREIGNT="Russia" — and propagate to every dependent library and every AI training corpus.
Methodology and raw results: community proposal for a De Jure/UN Consensus worldview · Kyiv Independent coverage · replication data (Harvard Dataverse)